How Iran intends to benefit from the Russian-Ukrainian war and NATO expansion

How Iran intends to benefit from the Russian-Ukrainian war and NATO expansion

At the end of February, everyone seemed to agree on at least one point: an agreement was within reach. Eleven months of negotiations were finally bearing fruit. Iran’s nuclear program will be supervised and US sanctions lifted. A return to the 2015 agreement seemed possible. But at the same time, Russian tanks were crossing the borders of Ukraine. Immediately, in Tehran, the main president announced in a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart: NATO expansion poses a serious threat to the stability and security of independent states. » Tone set: The Islamic Republic will support its neighbor in this “special military operation”.

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The following is a logical sequence. Tehran refuses to accept the UN resolution against the Russian attack, considering Ukraine as well “Victim of destabilizing US policies”. Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov, who has been posting for months about Moscow’s constructive role in diplomatic negotiations on Twitter, expects a delay in concluding the Iran nuclear deal due to some expectations ” not fulfilled “.before its leader, Sergei Lavrov, claimed Written guarantees So that US sanctions do not affect Cooperation with Iran. As a result, Josep Borrell must admit” Interruption of conversations due to external factors However, as the head of EU diplomacy pointed out, the final text was Almost ready and on the table.

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So, did Russia really decide to turn the tables, as we can read here and there? No, Clément Therm, Research Associate at the European University Institute in Florence replies: Russia is certainly no longer a mediator, but it still has a better interest in concluding the agreement. » This temporary blockage is preferably “A gesture of bad humor”, According to the specialist in Iranian-Russian relations, to send a message about the difficulty of fragmenting files: Iran is a way of saying that we can confront Ukraine at the same time and work between the great powers. So there is an important component of communication.” There is no doubt about the agreement with the Iranians, because the regime has never criticized it: It is in fact an act of solidarity with the sanctioned, a movement of support on the part of Tehran towards Moscow. »

strategic alliance

Russia is a strategic, economic and ideological priority for Iran. The development of its nuclear and ballistic missile program is closely linked to the transfer of Russian technology. Bilateral trade volume exceeded $3.5 billion in 2021, up 38% from the previous year. An economic convergence is currently being negotiated within the framework of a twenty-year partnership. At the military level, the Islamic Republic is aligned with Russia’s regional policy, and is now participating in joint military exercises with Moscow and Beijing.

However, Russia is not blindly seeking to support the Iranian regime. “The Russians want a creditworthy Iran to buy weapons, nuclear power plants, etc. They need Iranian petrodollars, and they know they will be the first to get them. Clement Therm explains. On the other hand, they may try to exaggerate Iranian demands during the negotiations, and act on the regime’s anti-Western rhetoric to reap the benefits. »

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On the other hand, the regime in Tehran sees the war in Ukraine as a glimmer of hope. While talks have resumed since Wednesday, June 29 in Doha, Qatar, the Iranian authorities are now counting on a radical deterioration in the economic situation on the planet’s level, particularly the rise in fuel prices, which will push the West into more flexibility. It is, however, what the Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the regime that now controls all the regime’s cogs, dream about. The Iranian deep state wants an alliance with Russia, believing thatThe emergence of anti-Western Russia is a hope for the ideology they inherited from Khomeini, Continue specialist in Iran. They hope to revive this Islamic ideology that presents itself as the only alternative to globalized capitalism. »

economic conditions

Meanwhile, residents are paying the price. Inflation has reached historic levels. The national currency continues to collapse, and the country lives to the rhythm of almost daily demonstrations, while food products such as wheat and corn partly coming from the war zone have become scarce. ” In addition to, Due to drought, a decrease in wheat production occurs, Feridun Khavand, a specialist in international economic relations at the University of Paris V, explains. So Iran has to import more while the price in the international market has risen significantly. This will greatly affect the cash flow. » This week, the state chose to ration bread and flour.

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added to this “The impact of international sanctions on Russia, which indirectly affects the export of Iranian oil on the black market, especially to China or India,” continued. If its exports double due to the current shortage, the fact remains that Iran has a much more difficult time getting its cash counterpart back. According to estimates by Iranian economic circles, Iran pays brokers between 30-40% of its revenue. Believing that demand is urgent and the price of its sanctioned oil attractive, the government recently allocated a budget to increase export earnings and appears to want to continue its “economic resistance” policy. The core questionconcludes Clement Therm, The ability of the Westerners to punish several sources of oil at the same time. Russia and Iran play on this. »

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