Will a cycle end soon? In any case, real estate prices have not stopped rising for two years in most areas. In its latest market barometer, Orpi’s dealer network cites some rather eloquent examples of the frenzy that has affected buyers in recent months. In one year, prices rose on average by 15% in Pau, 14% in Rennes, 13% in Reims, or even 13% in Montpellier… Still expect average price increases of 7% compared to in the first half of 2021.
After these amazing booms, real estate agents are now playing Cassandra. With good reason, medium-sized cities, which are phasing markets for many megacities, are “beginning to set the time after two years of dynamism sustained by the effects of the health crisis,” according to Orbe’s analysis. How do we explain this reversal? To develop its thesis, the network first highlights the amazing influx of new buyers in certain cities. Transactions, for example, jumped again by 10% in a city like Toulon, 25% in Angers, or by 30% in Perpignan in the first half of 2022. However, if these cities are attracting more and more people, ” It’s also the risk of seeing their prices go up […] At the risk of drying up the futures market, the agency network fears.
a map. Home prices at record levels, rates by region
After that, “other factors also lead to a return to normal market conditions,” Orpi lists. One of the main factors that turns against sellers: inflation, which affects buyers’ budget. But also the rise in bank loan rates, which makes it difficult for future buyers to get a loan. Orbi stresses that these elements “have a real impact on demand and market dynamics”.
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Possible price correction … and thus possible negotiations
In this context, Orpi Capital has provided, based on statistics collected by its local agencies, the average negotiation margins applied in the first half of 2022 between buyers and sellers in the 33 cities where the network was established and has sufficient statistics. In fact, if the real estate market tension slows in the second half of the year… this means that buyers are likely to have more power to negotiate the sale prices of desirable homes under better conditions.
Among the negotiating margins studied by Orbe, you will find those observed hitherto in the largest cities (Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Nice, etc.), but also in smaller cities (such as Le Mans, Poitiers, Chartres or Valencia). Find all of this information in the table below.
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