actifs immobilier en 2023

Real estate: the horizon darkens for 2023

After a long and happy period of historically low interest rates, borrowers are now facing an irresistible increase in the cost of credit. Other shocks await them, confirms a study by BPCE ofimmovable Residential next year in 2023.

A very bleak picture of 2023

Getting a property is always a dream. Real estate is still seen as a safe haven. However, BPCE Group, which has presented its forecasts for residential properties, warned that “the extent of the inflationary shock to purchasing power” would encourage the French to be more “vigilant” or even “delay” acquisitions in 2023.

In the context of Continuous increase in pricesThe number of residential activities has decreased since the end of 2021 and the volume of transactions has fallen sharply. By 2023, the economic situation is expected to deteriorate further.

The combined effect of higher interest rates, energy regulations, and negative household expectations can lead to a sharp drop in sales and subsequently lower prices.

The real estate prices It remained relatively high in the first quarter of 2022, up 7.3% year-on-year, pushing new home mortgage loans to a new record high, up 9% compared to 2021 (January-May period).

However, in terms of volume, the market fell sharply. Sure, the old transactions have remained at a very high level (1.17 million years now at the end of March), but they have been in a downtrend for six months.

In new buildings, due to structural weaknesses (land scarcity and high cost of land, backlog of standards, growing reluctance of elected officials to issue permits, etc.) Economic difficulties (shortages and supply shortages), housing construction stalled at around 390,000 units due to material shortages, cost increase, labor issues, etc.), strong rebound licensing appears more likely as an unanticipated effect of acquiring projects prior to RE2020 implementation than Being a harbinger of the resumption of activity.

The Angel Proceeded Badly in 2023

In addition to this economic context, the residential market is also affected by two factors of sustainable market transition.

constrained by public authorities that recognize the urgent need to act to protect the climate, friendsWhether they are occupants or renters, they will have to pay unsustainable energy business bills at the expense of the almost immediate depreciation of their property.

The first, of course, is the tendency to high interest rates After nearly 40 years of almost continuous declines. This large and relatively rapid increase in mortgage rates should rapidly affect households’ ability to meet financial obligations, exacerbating the exclusion of first-time buyers.

The second is to continue to implement Energy regulations In France, the system moved from information and incitement to coercion and punishment. Actions taken on the 4.8 million homes rated F and G, particularly in the rental sector, and the energy review implemented in the fall could have a significant impact on prices.

The yellow vest crisis, which began at the end of 2018, stemmed from “tax exhaustion” after aligning the diesel tax with the gasoline tax. The “green” phenomenon is more likely to gain favor with owners who are victims not only of rising energy costs, but also of losing property value due to poor energy performance ratings (DPE) under the climate law.

Admittedly, financial assistance is offered alongside thermal regeneration, but it is far from covering the cost. To this day, the owners are largely unaware of what awaits them.

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