Le secteur de la banque et de l’assurance résiste bien face à la crise

The banking and insurance sectors are resilient well in the face of the crisis

The growth of the national economy is supposed to slow to 1% in 2022 before accelerating to 4% in 2023, according to forecasts by Bank Al-Maghrib that highlight an unfavorable context. The Committee for Coordination of Risks and Systematic Monitoring (CCSRS), which met recently at the headquarters of the Central Bank in Rabat, estimated that “despite a strong recovery in national economic activity in 2021, weaknesses associated with the consequences of the crisis in Ukraine, a rise in inflationary pressures and poor conditions for the campaign It is clear that Bank Al-Maghrib expects a greater slowdown in the growth of the national economy than the expectations of the High Commission for Planning (HCP), which for its part expects an increase in economic growth of 1.3% in 2022 before the recovery. To 3.7 in 2023. In a press release published at the end of the work, the Central Bank indicated that “with regard to external accounts, the current account deficit will rise to 4.9% of GDP in 2022 before returning to 3.8% in 2023.” To the CCSRS Committee, Bank Al-Maghrib indicated that with the integration of the external financing forecast for the Treasury in particular, the official reserve assets would allow covering about 6 months of imports of goods and services, continuing its analysis of the evolution of the financial system situation in light of the trend In the economic and financial situation, Bank Al-Maghrib announced that the budget deficit is expected to widen to 6.3% of GDP in 2022 before declining to 5.6% in 2023, while the Treasury will stand indebtedness at 70.1% of GDP in 2022 and then at 70.7% in 2023. It should be noted that during this fifteenth cycle, bank credit allocated to the non-financial sector advanced at a moderate pace and that the increase in non-performing loans continued to decline during the first four months of 2022. Another observation was made during this The meeting: The loss ratio stabilized at the end of April 2022 to 11.2% in relation to loans provided to non-financial companies and 9.8% in relation to loans provided to the Central Bank. The Central Bank indicated, from the same source, that this results in a debt rate owed by the banking sector at 8.7%. It should be noted that the coverage rate of these receivables with provisions remained in the range of 68%. The committee, which studied and approved the financial stability report for the year 2021 during its meeting, stressed that the banking sector remains strong and resilient in terms of profitability, liquidity and solvency. Indeed, “after the contraction observed in 2020, the cumulative net income of banks, for the 2021 fiscal year, witnessed a recovery of 76.4%. Bank Al-Maghrib said that the short-term liquidity ratio stands at comfortable levels. Continuing its analysis, Bank Al-Maghrib indicated that in terms of Capitalization, solvency and first equity ratios are, at the end of 2021, 15.8% and 12%, on a corporate basis, for regulatory minimums of 12% and 9%. It should be noted that on a consolidated basis, the data collected shows That these ratios are 13.9% and 11.2%, respectively, the bank noted. “The aggregate solvency stress test conducted by Bank Al-Maghrib in June 2022 shows the resilience of the banking sector in the face of scenarios that mimic deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.” As with the banking sector, Financial market infrastructures continue to show strong financial and operational resilience and still represent a low level of risk to financial stability, according to the committee, which reviewed during its meeting the progress of the Financial Stability Roadmap covering the period 2022-2024 and reviewed the monthly work summary of the representative It has been held since the beginning of the health crisis. The insurance sector, whose main indicators show, in general, was able to return to its pre-crisis state, for its part, “resuming a good dynamic to reach a level of growth in its turnover of 9.9% in 2021 compared to” 1% in the previous year, “said Pam Benefiting from the good performance of the stock market, the financial result of the sector rebounded by 64.7% while the operating margin decreased due to the rise in claims that returned to their level before the crisis. Thus “the sector witnessed an increase in its net income by 35% and the rate of return on Shareholders’ equity to 9.5%,” the Central Bank said in its press release, noting that the ratio of the most latent values ​​on investments increased from 13% in 2020 to 15.5% in 2021. According to Bank Al-Maghrib, at the precautionary level, the sector continues to achieve a comfortable solvency margin compared to However, the institution cautions that “this margin, which currently covers only underwriting risk, could be reduced with the entry into force of the SBR framework.” The bank also noted that the stress testing exercises conducted Show good flexibility In the face of shocks in the stock and real estate portfolio and unfavorable macroeconomic and technical conditions. “With regard to pension systems, incorporating contract teachers from regional education and training academies (AREFs) into the civil pension system managed by the Moroccan Pension Fund, should alleviate, in the long run, the accumulated deficit,” BAM added, however, taking into account Consider that incorporating these teachers will not have a significant impact on its short-term sustainability, due to the very limited feasibility horizon of this scheme. Finally, “after the significant increase in capital market indices in 2021, it was affected in the first half of 2022 by the effects of the international economic situation,” according to Bank Al-Maghrib, noting that the Casablanca Stock Exchange’s MASI index was recorded on June 30. 2022, a decrease of 10.1%, after an increase of 18.35% recorded in 2021.

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