Transactions dans l’immobilier résidentiel : après l’envolée, l’atterrissage ?

Transactions in residential real estate: after the flight, landing? – Patrimoine magazine: economic, financial, exchange and stock market news

Home sales broke records in 2021. The market momentum was driven by the completion of several moving projects in the wake of the health crisis, by borrowing rates that remained low despite monetary tightening, but also by the market rally of institutional investors who invested in the Euro 3.1 billion there in the first quarter of 2022. However, industry professionals expect a slowdown in prices and a decline in transaction volumes for 2022.

2021 will be the year of all records for the residential property market. The number of transactions reached 1.2 million, according to notaries. This represents an increase of about 15% compared to 2019 and 2020. According to Century 21 Agency Network, the average price per square meter is also increasing for the sixth consecutive year for homes and for the seventh consecutive year for apartments. Also record the terms of the loan (21.1 years) and the share of financing obtained by borrowing (81.8%).

Over 18% of French moved in 2021which is huge, notes Boris Vein, a spokesman for the Supreme Council of Notaries. A wave of moves resulted in large part from the health crisis, confinement, and the evolution of remote work, exacerbating the need for space and a better quality of life; Historically low borrowing rate which facilitates the realization of projects. In this context, medium-sized cities are popular, as well as individual houses with gardens or apartments with terraces or balconies. The possibility of creating a separate office is also fundamental, as is the quality of the Internet. It is the medium-sized cities that are the most connected and the most dynamic that benefit from it: the large suburbs (particularly in Ile-de-France) and the cities connected to the TGV.

Investors’ rise

Investors are also one of the drivers of the market. The proportion of acquisitions devoted to rental investment has grown steadily since 2014: in seven years it has moved from 17% to 30% of transactions, a new record for the fourth year in a row. Thus, institutional investors, mutual funds and asset managers are working to strengthen their presence in the residential real estate market. In the first quarter of 2022 alone, institutional investors confirmed their enthusiasm for the residential sector by investing €3.1 billion there, which suggests 2022 New Standard Size According to BNP Paris RE.

7.4 billion euros were invested in residential real estate in France in 2021, according to data from ImmoStat The first ten deals totaled 3.2 billion euros. In 2021, The market was distinguished by signing about fifty investment opportunities with a unit value of more than 10 million euros. Stéphane Imowicz, CEO of Ikory, who supports investors in their acquisition projects. These 50 transactions represent €4 billion (including approximately 15 with a unit value of over €50 million)”. Ile-de-France concentrates 70% of the amounts offered for sale in 2021.

According to CFNews Immo data, housing accounts for approximately €5 billion of investments in 2021. Powerhouse Habitat, a residential property operated by TwentyTwo Real Estate (€4.5 billion in assets under management), signed two of the four largest transactions in 2021. The first relates to the acquisition It holds 85% of a 16-building real estate portfolio from the EDF Group. The portfolio is worth 218 million euros, and includes 380 housing units (31,000 square meters of living space). The second deal relates to the purchase of 31 apartment buildings from SCPI Domivalor IV, operated by Immovalor Gestion, a subsidiary of the Allianz Group. The counter was negotiated, and the deal amounts to 207 million euros. The portfolio includes 874 housing units with a total living area of ​​50,000 square metres, half of which are in the Paris region and the other half in the major regional cities. ” These transactions are part of our desire to increase our assets in order to expand our rental offer at affordable rates, along with a high level of service and comfort. ”, identifies Daniel Rigney, President of TwentyTwo Real Estate. ” We are now pursuing this strategy by acquiring residential assets in urban and suburban areas of major regional cities, where the pressure on the real estate supply has increased significantly. “.

Prosperous big cities in the provinces

In fact, if Paris remains the most expensive city in France, prices are no longer going up there but are going down in certain areas; The dynamics of the market shifted towards the provinces, which regained popularity in the eyes of the French, against the background of the health crisis and the development of remote work. TwentyTwo Real Estate uses a set of indicators to identify areas of high potential. This investment strategy in less densely populated areas is based on very specific selection criteria, such as fiber connectivity, service by rail network, proximity to green spaces, or the offer of generous outdoor spaces. Lots of criteria that meet the aspirations” sign out That move more and more city dwellers. ” We focus on assets that require active management or reorganizationDaniel Rigney continues. This is where the strength of our investor-operator model lies. We are leading, for example, in Marseille, the re-location of a 200-unit housing complex built in 1974. This change respects the initial spirit of the place, while adapting it to the evolution of uses by integrating a thermal component, a living component and a living component together. »

General price hike

According to Nexity, cities in sub-counties located near major cities, such as Melun or Bergerac, also benefit from sustainable appeal due to the phenomenon of mass migration. For houses, which are highly prized by families who want to settle on the outskirts of large cities or in the countryside, according to notaries, in the urban area of ​​Rennes, prices have risen more than one year (as of 3e Quarter 2021): +13.1%. It follows Montpellier, Toulon, Nice, Bordeaux, Marseille, Nantes, Lille, Lyon and Saint-Etienne. For apartments, the largest increases were for Orléans (+10.4%) and Reims (+10.2%), two cities next sought for their proximity to Paris. Rennes completes the catwalk, thanks to the LGV Paris-Rennes (1h30) line. Follow Saint-Etienne, Dijon, Toulon, Le Havre, Lille, Nantes and Marseille.

CREDOC also notes” The attractiveness of families to smaller cities ” And the ” The success of medium-sized cities and suburbs “.” Gone are the days when Paris and the 10 largest French cities drove the market up on their own. “, says Thomas Lefebvre, Scientific Director of Meilleurs Agents, who specializes in online property valuation. There are transfers, especially to small towns, even medium-sized citiess”, also explain the notary. For example, ” Around the metropolitan area of ​​Lyon, Lyonnais directed its departure more towards cities with less than 3,500 inhabitants and located in the neighboring provinces (Isere, Ain, Loire), in greener and more financially accessible areas Same note. For inner Toulouse as well as for the metropolitan area of ​​Toulouse In Poitiers, the median house price increased by 15.5% in one year. The same trend is in Troyes (+12.5%) or Nîmes (+6%). A study by the Century 21 real estate agency network also notes the boom in homes located On the outskirts of major urban centers: Families prefer medium-sized cities that gravitate around big cities “.

2022: towards relegation?

While the first quarter of 2022 was a continuation of 2021, since April we have seen signs of a correction in the market. In almost all major French cities, prices tend to run out. This trend is confirmed, to a lesser extent, in rural areas where price growth is limited to 4.6% in the first half of 2022 compared to 6.9% in the same period last year. Thus nationally, prices increased between January and June by 1.7% versus 3.8% in the first half of 2021.

This stabilizing momentum should continue into the second half, under the influence of several factors. Indeed, the historic rate hike announced by the European Central Bank on July 21 would quickly produce its first effects on the rate of erosion and, automatically, on the terms of mortgage grants: It could still be borrowed, in June 2022, at 1.6% over 20 yearsexplains Vincent Kodkovic, CEO of Primaliance. However, rates of 2% or more could be envisaged by the end of 2022. “Speculate with the participation of Henri Bouzy Cazaux, of the Institute of Real Estate Services Management, who also states that« The prudential standards of the Supreme Financial Stability Board have regulatory force since January 1 of this year “, which explains the bypassing of loan denials” Perhaps a third of the files have been submitted by individuals.

The big names in the housing deal, who recently published their forecasts, abound in this direction. For FNAIM, the price hike should be up to 3% this year. Sales, for their part, should post an 8-10% decline this year, the union warns.

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