Decryption: A few days before recovery, what can be expected for a return to politics?

Decryption: A few days before recovery, what can be expected for a return to politics?

The political comeback of 2022 is fast approaching. Climate, fires, purchasing power, energy prices, unemployment insurance, pension reform… a lot of hot issues that the government and parliamentarians will be working on as of the end of August.

After a summer spent at sea for Emmanuel Macron and certain ministers, a mountain of files awaits the head of state and his government upon his return from vacation.

The first Council of Ministers will be held on Wednesday at the Elysee. The following week, a government seminar will be held on August 31.

On the list of government negotiations, first of all, there are the most pressing issues, starting with the climate. The topic came back in force with the violent fires that broke out in France during the summer, and then with the historic drought followed by storms, such as the one that hit Corsica hard a few days ago.

In addition to these emergencies, such as the energy crisis, the executive branch should not procrastinate on its sensitive targets even before the summer holidays. Employment is one of the priorities, with a text on unemployment insurance expected by next October.

Consultations will also take place in September on a thorny topic: pension reform.

According to NUPES MP, Benjamin Lucas, “This is a subject that we cannot bargain on. The situation in the country is not good, the situation of the French is not good, and the climate is tragic…”. Benjamin Lucas adds that he “hopes that there will be widespread social mobilization to show what the state wants in the face of this government’s projects.”

The MP’s hopes should be fulfilled by September 29. Several national unions called for a general mobilization in France in order to make their demands heard regarding purchasing power, workers’ rights or even pension reform.

Security, budget and social downfall

At the same time, the government will also consider sovereignty. On the front line is a security issue with the first directive and programming law for the Ministry of the Interior.

The latter should increase the budget for the regime’s forces by 15 billion euros over five years. The immigration dossier will also be discussed, even if the examination of the law by Gerald Darmanin is postponed in favor of a debate in Parliament.

In the fall, the traditional budget check, which will force the Macron government and MPs to make concessions, especially due to the relative majority of the President of the Republic. All this sounds like an explosive cocktail in the eyes of political scientist Benjamin Morell.

We are entering the difficult part of a purchasing power crisis. Winter in particular, and the end of autumn, will fully reveal the difficulties or possibility of the government stopping the waves in public opinion.”

According to him, while we will ask the French to make an effort, etc… there is no miraculous solution that can allow the government to escape some form of indignation.

Here, the role of the political opposition will be significant, because “it is clear that today there is an opposition capable of obstructing Parliament, it is tense,” as Benjamin Morell conjectured.

Password: consultation

From this assumption regarding a highly tense context, the start of the new school year will be in harmony with consultation and consultation with the government and the main forces in national politics. Whether it’s health, school or environmental transformation, the Executive wants to implement the method of the Great Debate, or rather the permanent debate on all the major topics of the year.

In the idea of ​​consulting all stakeholders on the major issues of the country, President Macron launched this project to establish the National Council for Reestablishment.

The concept and form are still unclear, but this institution is supposed to bring together unions, associations and various citizens to discuss key legislation before it reaches Parliament. It will be launched on September 8th.

If this advice is seen by the opposition as a simple gimmick, then Macronic deputies, such as Patrick Vignall, are a firm believer in what they hope will be a new method.

“The match could blow France up on any topic. It could be pension reform, it was fruits and vegetables that took 40%, people couldn’t eat anymore… We have to involve the French, and again we are not afraid of the crowd.” (. …) It is more than a consultation, it is a new state of mind to be created with the French”

Instead, Emmanuel Macron should stay away from the cauldron of the National Assembly, which in July showed while examining the purchasing power text could be in a boiling state.

Initially, the head of state should focus on the international level. Phase one: Algeria, from Thursday to next Saturday. The aim of the president’s trip is to strengthen diplomatic relations, as Algeria celebrates this year’s 60th anniversary of its independence.

Paul Barcelona (with Alexis Lalimante)

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